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Friday 28 March 2008 (Updated Tues 1 April 08 at 10am AEDT)

RAPID ROUNDUP: Top NASA scientist calls on Rudd to end coal fired power stations - experts respond.

In an open letter to Kevin Rudd, Dr James Hansen, the director of NASA'S Goddard Institute for Space Studies, has called on the Australian government to halt plans for the mining of coal, the export of coal and the construction of new coal-fired power plants.

Dr Hansen, one of the world’s leading climate scientists, has described the need to phase out coal use that does not include the capture and storage of CO2 as “a global imperative”. The letter which was delivered to Kevin Rudd’s office today will also be sent to state premiers. A copy of the letter is available here.

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Professor Barry Brook is Sir Hubert Wilkins Chair of Climate Change and Director of the Research Institute for Climate Change and Sustainability at Adelaide University

Dr Geoff Davies is a geophysicist, author and commentator. He is a Senior Fellow at the Research School of Earth Sciences, Australian National University and is the author of "Economia: New Economic Systems to Empower People and Support the Living World".

Dr Andrew Glikson is an Earth scientist at the Australian National University, involved in the study of the effects of atmospheric changes on the mass extinction of species.

William Kininmonth is a meteorologist and an outspoken critic of global warming and the Kyoto Protocol. He was head of the National Climate Centre at the Bureau of Meteorology from 1986 to 1998.

Professor Neville Nicholls is in the School of Geography & Environmental Science at Monash University, and was a member of the writing team for the IPCC Synthesis Report.

Dr Barrie Pittock was formerly leader of the Climate Impact Group in CSIRO and is author of the book “Climate Change: Turning Up the Heat”.

Dr Michael Raupach is Co-Chair of the Global Carbon Project, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research.

Dr Kelly Thambimuthu is the CEO of the Centre for Low Emission Technology.

Frank van Schagen is CEO of the CRC for Coal in Sustainable Development.

Professor Barry Brook is Sir Hubert Wilkins Chair of Climate Change and Director of the Research Institute for Climate Change and Sustainability at Adelaide University.

"There are two realities that Hansen is trying to deal with in his letter.

One is the scientific reality - climate change is happening faster than we'd dared guess, and Hansen and colleagues are showing that the climate system responds more sensitivity to CO2 than had been assumed. We are already in the realm of dangerous climate change, and things can only get worse the longer we delay.

The other reality is political and economic - how can we possibly turn the world's economies around to a low carbon future as urgently as possible, and still avoid global financial ruin? Hansen proposes some fundamentals - actions that must be done, if there is to be any hope of staving off a real crisis. This is a moratorium on building any more coal fired power stations unless the CO2 emissions are captured and buried and an apolitical mechanism to ensure that, year by year, a steadily decreasing emissions cap is imposed. The developed world must lead, and the developing world must then be close behind.

After these key measures, the rest is detail: tough political, diplomatic, economic and technical detail, but detail nonetheless. The hard fact is that we are already well beyond the point where we can continue to dance around the edge of the global climate problem and pretend to be solving it with half measures and meaningless gestures. It turns out that grace time passed decades ago. Rudd actually said it well last year - there is no plan B, no other planet to retreat to. Earth won't wait any longer.

The big unknown is, and remains, this: has humanity got the collective wisdom to realise this in time and take meaningful action? Hansen says that this will take a herculean effort - but equally, there is no escaping this need. And we've done it before, during the world wars. History says that societies CAN mobilise to confront crises, but only when they are truly genuine about affirmative and immediate action."

Dr Geoff Davies is a geophysicist, author and commentator. He is a Senior Fellow at the Research School of Earth Sciences, Australian National University and is the author of "Economia: New Economic Systems to Empower People and Support the Living World".

"I applaud James Hansen's call for urgent action on global warming, including phasing out coal-fired power stations. Global warming is advancing much faster than expected, and policy discussions have fallen well behind the new reality. We need to be reducing greenhouse gas emissions within years, not decades.

The quickest available energy option is to dramatically improve energy efficiency. Many studies now show that available efficient designs and methods can more quickly reduce greenhouse gas emissions for less cost than most other options, with little reduction in amenity and with major side benefits. Efficiency is the only option that can keep household energy bills under control as energy prices inevitably rise.

Capture and storage of carbon dioxide from coal burning, menioned by Dr Hansen, is not a near-term option. It is at least a decade away from implementation and is unproven at the required scales. Dr Hansen's frequent mention of carbon capture and storage should not be read as an endorsement of the technology, and certainly not as advocating taxpayer subsidies for it, but merely as a scientist's careful noting of the only possible conditions under which coal-fired power stations could operate."

Dr Andrew Glikson is an Earth scientist at the Australian National University, involved in the study of the effects of atmospheric changes on the mass extinction of species.

“I fully support the contents of James Hansen’s letter. The stabilization of atmospheric CO2 (carbon dioxide) levels below about 300 ppm (parts per million) about 10 000 years ago led to climate conditions which allowed prehistoric humans to settle and develop large scale agriculture, providing the basis for civilization. The current rapid rise of CO2 to levels nearing 390 ppm at rates of about 3 ppm per year threatens to erode the conditions for large scale agriculture due to migration of climate zones toward the poles with consequent desertification of large terrains, mountain glacier melt and thus shortage of water, sea level rise and inundation of extensive coastal and low river agricultural regions.

The extent of sea level rise has been underestimated by IPCC reports, as the recent history of Earth indicates sea level rise of at least 5 metres per one degree Celsius. In other words, in so far as mean global temperatures through the 21st century rise to levels higher than 2 degrees C, projected sea levels would rise on the scale of many metres, with serious consequences around the globe.

Current observations indicate rates of CO2 rise, temperature rise and sea level rise are exceeding IPCC projections; for example rates of melting of Arctic Sea ice have exceeded 10 percent per year during 2006-2007 - indicating climate change is taking place over exponential rather than linear trajectories, tracking toward dangerous conditions over the next few decades. These telescoped time tables of climate change, and the real possibility of climate tipping points, have not to date been taken into account by governments, which currently consider mitigation efforts on longer time scales, namely toward 2050.

Professor James Hansen's letter is based on observations and conclusions reported in a recent paper by himself and a group of top US climate and paleoclimate scientists. The paper is based on evidence derived from both direct observations of ongoing climate change and detailed studies of the most recent history of the Earth. Professor Hansen's conclusions and recommendations have my full support.”

William Kininmonth is a meteorologist and an outspoken critic of global warming and the Kyoto Protocol. He was head of the National Climate Centre at the Bureau of Meteorology from 1986 to 1998.

"The purported Open Letter from Dr James Hansen, Director of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies, to Prime Minister Kevin Rudd is no more than a thinly-disguised front for a group of Australian climate change alarmists. The hysterical tone of the letter cannot hide the obvious defects of the information contained: global climate is not near a critical tipping point, temperatures having declined 0.6°C during 2007 to return to the 1961-1990 average. The only sign of ice sheet disintegration is the normal fracturing of ice shelves off the Antarctic Peninsula and Arctic sea ice extent has returned to near long-term mean values. Unstoppable sea level rise is imagination rather than reality. Statistics do not back up the claim that there are stronger droughts, forest fires, storms, tornados or thunderstorms.

Fossil fuels are a non-renewable resource and to be used as efficiently and effectively as possible until alternative renewable resources are developed for wide application through developed and developing countries. However carbon dioxide is neither a pollutant nor an agent for dangerous climate change. Energy policies must be based on good science, not emotive and unsubstantiated fear-mongering."

Professor Neville Nicholls is in the School of Geography & Environmental Science at Monash University, and was a member of the writing team for the IPCC Synthesis Report.

"I understand Hansen's frustration at the lack of action by politicians on this problem. But I can't see that we can, or even should, immediately halt the construction of coal-fired power stations. And insisting on such precipitate action will provide an easy target for those who would avoid any action on global warming. The world won't end while we wait for the final Garnaut report to recommend what can be done without destroying the Australian economy."

Dr Barrie Pittock was formerly leader of the Climate Impact Group in CSIRO and is author of the book “Climate Change: Turning Up the Heat”.

"Jim Hansen is correct. The urgency of reducing emissions is now much clearer, with new observations showing that climate system models have under-estimated the rate of change. There have been particularly worrying decreases in Arctic sea ice, rapid acceleration of outlet glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica, thb reak-up of some fringing ice shelves in Antarctica, and rapid melting of many mountain glaciers. This is all happening decades earlier than predicted.

We cannot afford to wait to reduce emissions, it must start now. We should not build new coal-fired power stations unless we capture and remove the carbon dioxide emissions, and we should phase in similar conditions on our coal exports. The whole world, and Australia in particular, will suffer greatly if we allow more emissions with resulting increased sea-level rise and other changes. Serious emission reductions decades from now will be too late."

Dr Michael Raupach is Co-Chair of the Global Carbon Project, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research

"James Hansen is fundamentally right. Coal is indeed a major contributor to CO2 emissions, both globally and for Australia. If strategies for constraining coal emissions (either by burning less or by geosequestration) are not in place soon, then technical inertia will mean that coal alone will carry the world past 550 ppm CO2eq later this century.

This letter is a reminder of the rapidly increasing gap between emissions reductions necessary to avoid unacceptable climate change and the reductions that are technically and economically possible. In just a few years, this "carbon gap" will be unbridgeable and we will be committed to greenhouse gas levels 550 ppm CO2eq or more by later this century, with high risks of dangerous climate change".

Dr Kelly Thambimuthu is the CEO of the Centre for Low Emission Technology.

"The position taken by James Hansen has the force of credible argument. It is possible to continue using coal whilst protecting the climate by enabling coal-fired power plant technologies with CO2 Capture and Storage. Such technologies would also foster the increased end use of decarbonised electricity/hydrogen based energy carriers that are required to transform the global energy infrastructure into a sustainable and climate friendly system in the longer term.

But rather than call for a dramatic halt in the use of a major global energy resource that is important to the peace, prosperity and security of nations concerted action should be taken now to accelerate the development and deployment of both coal-fired power plants with CO2 Capture and Storage and a portfolio of other carbon free or carbon neutral energy technologies."

Frank van Schagen is CEO of the CRC for Coal in Sustainable Development

“The CRC for Coal in Sustainable Development (CCSD) strongly supports the Australian government's efforts to establish a policy and regulatory framework that will enable Australia to reduce its greenhouse footprint. The solution to greenhouse will be a mix of many energy technologies that will include coal and other fossil fuels. The CCSD and other centres such as the CO2CRC are undertaking significant research programs which will demonstrate low emission coal based energy technologies that can be retrofitted to existing power plants. Similar work is occurring all around the world.”